Task 3.3: Determination of mesoscale predator-prey interactions impacting on population dynamics

Appropriate methods to take small-scale, high-intensity predation events on early and juvenile life stages of target species into account will be developed by using simulation models, and implemented in large-scale, multi- species fisheries assessment models.

Integrative modelling activities

Existing multi-species models will be more thoroughly developed by implementing validated and enhanced process models, as well as by taking into account additional relevant information on stock biology and drivers of recruitment dynamics (from WP 1 and 2).
Deterministic and stochastic multi-species models of different complexity (4M, SMS, ECOSIM, GADGET, STOCOBAR) will be applied to reconstruct the historical stock dynamics encompassing periods of regime shifts. In this way, the ability of models to reconstruct the timing and rate of stock changes will be tested.
Multi-species models with proven hindcast capabilities will be used to project future stock recovery potentials. Alternative, yet similarly plausible, scenarios of environmental and anthropogenic will be tested to provide a suite of alternative recovery paths. A synthesis of recovery paths will, in turn, provide uncertainty levels.
The predictions of future stock developments provide the necessary input data for generic fisheries management evaluation tools (FEMS, ISIS), which will be applied in WP 4 and 5. In addition, the multi-species models provide self-standing predictions on stock recovery paths since they are able to incorporate multi-fleet interactions (4M/SMS) as well as resolve spatial processes in the systems (GADGET, Simulation models).